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2008-2009年中国清洁能源行业研究报告
字数:6.5万 页数:167 图表数:125
中文电子版:8500元 中文纸版:8000元 发布日期:2009-06
英文电子版:2500美元 英文纸版:2300美元
编号:ZN003 附件: 购买报告

  基于多方面的因素,2008年全球清洁能源市场规模迅速增长。根据CLEAN EDGE统计,2008年全球清洁能源的市场规模达到1159亿美元,较2007年增长50%。

图:2008年全球清洁能源市场规模
 2009052205.gif
来源:CLEAN EDGE

  全球清洁能源市场主要集中在风电、核电和太阳能三个领域。下面来看看中国清洁能源的未来发展展望:

  2008年中国累计风电装机容量为12153MW,较2007年增长106%。《可再生能源十一五规划》2010年风电装机目标1000万千瓦,,已经于2008年实现。《中长期规划》2020年累计装机3000万千瓦的目标也极有可能提前至2010年实现。

  从国务院批准的《核电中长期发展规划(2005-2020 年)》可以看出国家对核电发展的战略由“适度发展”到“积极发展”。按照规划,到2020 年,核电占全部电力装机容量的比重从现在的不到2%提高到4%,核电年发电量达到2600 -2800 亿千瓦时;2005 年-2010年,中国核电装机容量年复合增长率达到11.9%;2010 年-2020 年,装机容量年复合增长率达到12.8%。

表:核电项目建设构想  单位:万千瓦
2009052206.gif
来源:核电中长期发展规划(2005~2020年)

  根据“十一五”规划和2020年发展规划,到2010年,中国常规水电装机容量将达1.8亿千瓦,抽水蓄能电站装机容量将达1800万千瓦,水电开发程度将达33%;到2020年,常规水电装机容量将达3亿千瓦,抽水蓄能电站装机容量将达5000万千瓦,水电开发程度达55%。

  预计2020年,中国太阳能发电将会达到180万千瓦,建成太阳能热水器面积3亿平方米。随着中国太阳能技术不断进步,太阳能成本的逐渐下降,预计2020年太阳能发电将会取得常规能源平等竞争的价格。


Owing to various factors, the scale of the global clean energy market expanded rapidly in 2008. According to the statistics of CLEAN EDGE, the global clean energy market scale amounted to US$ 115.9 billion in 2008, up 50% year on year.

Global Clean Energy Market Scale, 2008
 2009060304.gif
Source: CLEAN EDGE

Global clean energy market mainly focuses on three fields --- wind power, nuclear power and solar energy. The followings are the future development prospect of clean energy in China.

In 2008, the accumulated installed capacity of wind power was 12,153MW in China, increasing 106% year on year. The goal that the accumulated installed capacity of wind power will reach 10 million kilowatts in 2010 stipulated by the Eleventh Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy was fulfilled in 2008 in advance. The goal that the installed capacity of wind power will amount to 30 million kilowatts in 2020 stipulated by Medium and Long-term Plan is very likely to be achieved in 2010 in advance.

According to Medium and Long-term Plan for Nuclear Power (2005-2020) approved by the State Council, the development strategies of nuclear power have changed from "appropriate development" to "positive development". In accordance with the plan, by 2020, the installed capacity of nuclear power will account for 4% of the total installed capacity of power, while the current percentage is less than 2%; the annual nuclear power generation will be 260 - 280 billion KWh; during 2005-2010, the CAGR of the installed capacity of nuclear power will be 11.9%;, and the figure will reach12.8% from 2010 to 2020.

Nuclear Power Project Plan (Unit: 10,000 KW)
2009060305.gif
Source: Medium and Long-term Plan for Nuclear Power (2005-2020)

According to "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" and Plan of 2020, by 2010, China's installed capacity of conventional hydropower will be 180 million kilowatts, the installed capacity of pumped storage power stations will be 18 million kilowatts, the exploitation of hydropower will be 33%; by 2020, the conventional hydropower installed capacity will be 300 million kilowatts, the installed capacity of pumped storage power stations will be 50 million kilowatts, the exploitation of hydropower will be 55%.

It is expected that China’s solar power generation will be 1.8 million kilowatts, and the area of solar water heaters will be 300 million square meters in 2020. With continuous progress of solar technology and the cost reduction of solar power, the price of solar power generation will decline to a level that can compete with that of conventional energy by 2020.

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