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2008年全球及中国太阳能多晶硅产业链研究报告
字数:6.4万 页数:197 图表数:230
中文电子版:9000元 中文纸版:8500元 发布日期:2008-09
英文电子版:3000美元 英文纸版:2800美元
编号:GB008 附件:下载 购买报告

  高涨的石油价格把以太阳能为代表的“新能源”推向了前所未有的高度,人们比任何时候都关注燃料乙醇、太阳能热水器以及太阳能电池产业,太阳能多晶硅产业更是风光无限。

  目前,太阳能电池的需求市场主要是美国、德国、日本、韩国、西班牙等,这都与这些国家实施的扶持政策密切相关,同时全球太阳能电池的原料高纯度晶体硅的供应也都基本上掌握在美国Hemlock、德国Wacker、日本Tokuyama等国际大厂手中。尽管目前中国在太阳能应用领域最为成熟的还只是太阳能热水器,但中国对太阳能光伏产业的热情和投入丝毫不逊色于其它国家。

表:全球主要多晶硅厂家太阳能电池用多晶硅产能情况
200809051.gif
来源:各公司资料,整理:水清木华研究中心

表:中国主要多晶硅已建、在建及拟建项目
200809052.gif

来源:各公司信息;整理:水清木华研究中心


  2006年中国太阳能电池产量达到438MWP,占世界总产量的17.1%,2007年中国太阳能电池产量达到1088MWP,超过日本、美国成为世界第一大太阳能电池生产国。

  按照生产1MWP太阳能需要11吨多晶硅计算,目前中国自产多晶硅仅能满足80MWP的太阳能电池生产,这就意味着2007年中国生产的1088MWP太阳能电池中有1008MWP所用多晶硅依赖进口或其它途径解决。与此同时中国多晶硅的现货价格也在不断上涨,从2001-2003年的25-40美元/千克,2006年升至200美元/千克,2007年达到平均300美元/千克,并且在2007年底2008年初,多晶硅的现货价格更是创造了400美元/千克的历史新高。

  与狂热的太阳能多晶硅投入规划和价格走势对应的是,中国厂商存在核心技术缺失,低水平重复建设,产业链配套不完善等问题。目前部分关键设备仍然无法国产化,完全依赖进口。多晶硅浇铸炉、线切割机、PECVD 等设备几乎完全依赖进口。与国际上多晶硅片材料生产占主导地位不同,中国则是单晶硅片材料的生产占主导地位。主要原因是国内单晶硅拉制的技术比较成熟,单晶生长炉已实现国产化。国产单晶炉的质量可以满足太阳能行业的需求,而且价格低廉,价格仅为国外产品的1/3-1/2,因此被大量的采用。多晶硅铸锭炉则多年以来依靠进口,价格昂贵。2007 年底,中国共进口各种多晶硅铸锭炉400 余台,每台进口价格90万美元左右,累计花去外汇3 亿多美元。


The hiking price of oil pushes the new energies such as solar energy to the historically high. People are more concerned about fuel ethanol, solar water heater and solar battery industry. Solar polysilicon especially shows a bright prospect.

Today the markets in demand for solar battery mainly concentrate in the USA, Germany, Japan, Korea and Spain; those are in close relationship to the supporting policy. Meanwhile, the supply of high purity crystalline silicon is dominated by few giants such as Hemlock, Wacker and Tokuyama. Among the application fields of solar energy, China grasps the mature technology in solar water heater only; however, China has the same activity and enthusiastic as any other countries in exploring and developing solar PV industry.

Production Capacity of Major Polysilicon (for Solar Battery) Manufacturers Worldwide 2003-2010
 200809053.gif
Source: ResearchInChina


Polysilicon Projects in China

200809054.gif
Source: ResearchInChina

In 2006, the output of solar battery in China was 438MWP, accounting for 17.1% of the world total. In 2007, the output of solar battery in China surpassed Japan and the USA, reaching 1088MWP, became the biggest producer in the world.

In term of 11 tons or more polysilicon producing 1MWP solar battery, China’s self-produced polysilicon can only satisfy the production of 80MWP solar battery, but the solar battery produced in China was 1088MWP in 2007, which means the polysilicon for the rest of 1008MWP was rely on exports or other channels. Meanwhile, the price of polysilicon in China keeps rising, from 25 to 40 USD per kilogram in 2001- 2003, to 200 USD per kilogram in 2006; its average price reached 300 USD per kilogram in 2007. In late 2007 or early 2008, price of polysilicon hit a historically high at 400 USD per kilogram.

In correspondence to the hot investment plan of solar polysilicon and the price trend, Chinese manufacturers generally have the following problems: lacking of core technology, low-level repetitive constructions and incomplete industry chain mix etc. Today, parts of the key equipments still rely on imports. For example, casting furnace, wire cutting machine tool and PECVD etc.

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