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2000-2008年中国电力行业上市公司投资方向研究报告
字数:7.1万 页数:370 图表数:510
中文电子版:9000元 中文纸版:8500元 发布日期:2008-07
英文电子版:3200美元 英文纸版:3000美元
编号:FW005 附件:下载 购买报告

　　截至2007年底，中国发电设备容量达7.13亿千瓦。2008年中国电力需求继续呈现稳定增长的态势，预计同比增长13%。从装机投产来看，随着小火电机组的关闭以及电源投资的放缓，2008年投产装机增速将高位回落，预计同比增长11.8%。

　　长期来看，受国内工业化与城镇化进程等因素推动，电力行业未来10年将保持6.6%-7.0%的年均增长率。由于需求强劲，电力行业将需要大量投资。

　　在投资方向上，水电、风电和核电投资虽然呈现出加速增长的态势，但在投资数额上仍然以煤电居首，电力行业的结构长期内将基本不变。目前我国水电发电量占总发电量的13.88%，核电量占比为1.94%，风力发电占0.26%，煤电则占78%左右。至少在2020年以前，燃煤发电仍处于稳定发展阶段，并且2020年以前我国的煤电装机仍将占全部装机的70%以上。

　　对以上几种发电方式的投资进行比较，从主要的财务指标看，发电方式的资产负债率基本相同。从成本费用率、产值利润率等指标来看，水电、核电都高于整个电力行业的平均盈利水平。尤其是核电，产值利润率维持在30%以上，远高于火电9%左右、全行业10%左右的利润率。

　　《2000-2008年中国电力行业投资方向分析报告》研究的是电力行业的56家上市公司2000－2008的所有投资项目，总结该行业的投资趋势，以及各企业的投资特点和投资趋势。

　　电力行业上市公司投资最多的三个省市分别为广东、内蒙古和上海，占所有投资的比例分别为15.33%、13.84%和10.53%。紧随其后的是四川省和北京市。

电力行业2000至2008的投资分布图（按省市）
 200807247.gif

　　从下图来看，电力行业上市公司投资最多的三个领域分别为火电、水电和热电领域，其数额分别为2163.75亿元、977.27亿元以及485.77亿元，其次是在燃气和煤炭开采领域的投资。

电力行业2000至2008H1的投资统计图（按细分行业）
 200807248.gif

　　本报告总结分析了56家电力行业的上市公司的项目投资情况，譬如粤电力Ａ（000539）。

　　粤电力Ａ（000539）2001年以后的投资均为非募集资金投资，并且投资金额与其它公司相比比较平均，每年项目投资一般在15亿-25亿元。

　　该公司投资最多的三个领域分别为火电、水电和热电领域，其次为在燃机发电和清洁发电领域的投资。

粤电力Ａ投资特点：

  •  主营业务：电力供应    多元化方向：保险金融、新能源开发
  •  公司02年以后的投资均为非募集资金投资；投资集中在华南地区。
  •  公司还进军金融业：对广东粤电财务有限公司增资,并发起设立阳光保险控股股份有限公司。
  •  公司在风能领域也已经取得了较大的进展，参股30%的石碑山风电项目(100MW)已开始运转发电，并且将进行湛江地区风力发电项目的开发。


粤电力Ａ 2000至2008H1的项目投资走势图
 200807249.gif

粤电力Ａ 2000至2008的项目投资分布图（按行业细分）
200807250.gif 

说明： 客户在购买本报告时，我们可以将数据更新到最近的一个季度。

 

By the end of 2007, China’s total installed capacity has amounted to 713 million kilowatt. China’s power demand is expected to continue to keep the momentum of a steady growth in 2008, up 13% year on year. With the shutdown of small thermal power generating units and the slowdown in investment in power generation, the high growth rate of China’s newly increased installed capacity in 2008 will decelerate, and the rate is expected to reach 11.8% year on year.

From the long run, China’s power industry, boosted by accelerated process of industrialization and urbanization at home, will have an average annual growth rate of 6.6% to 7.0% in the next ten years, indicating power industry will require a great deal of investment.

Regarding the investment direction, China has the momentum of accelerating the pace of investment in hydropower, wind power and nuclear power, but its investment in coal-fired power generation still ranks the first in terms of investment amount. Such a structure of China power industry will remain basically unchanged for a long time. At present, China’s hydropower output amounts to 13.88 percent of the national total, nuclear power output accounts for 1.94 percent and wind power output amounts to 0.26 percent, while coal-fired power output takes up at least 78% of the national total. China’s coal-fired power generation will still be in a stage of stable development at least before 2020, when China’s installed capacity of coal-fired power generating units will remain at more than 70 percent.

We make a comparison of investment between the above-mentioned several types of power generation, and their asset-liability ratios are basically the same in terms of financial indicators. But in terms of cost rate and ratio of profit to gross output value, hydropower and nuclear power are higher than the average profit level of the entire power industry. Especially nuclear power, its ratio of profit to gross output value remain at over 30%,  much higher than around 9% of coal-fired power and around 10% of the entire power industry.

This report makes an in-depth study on all investment projects financed by 56 listed companies in China’s power industry from 2000 to 2008 and also makes summary of investment trends of China’s power industry as well as investment features and investment trends of the listed companies.

In terms of investment amount of China’s listed power companies, the top three regions are Guangdong province, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Shanghai, whose investment ratios are 15.33%, 13.84% and 10.53% respectively, followed by Sichuan and Beijing.

Investment Distribution of China Electric Power Industry, 2000-2008 (by Region)
 200807251.gif
Resource: ResearchInChina

As we can see from the following chart, China’s listed power companies invest mostly in the three sectors of thermal power, hydropower and thermoelectricity, whose investment reaches CNY216.38 billion, CNY97.73 billion and CNY48.58 billion respectively, followed by investment in gas exploitation and coal mining.

Investment of China Listed Power Companies by Segments, 2000-2008
 200807252.gif
Resource: ResearchInChina

This report makes an in-depth analysis on all investment projects financed by 56 listed companies in China’s power industry. For example, Guangdong Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. (000539）is referred in this report.

The investment projects of Guangdong Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. after 2001 are all financed by non fund raising. Its annual investment is rather moderate compared to other companies, and its annual investment ranges from CNY1.5 billion to CNY2.5 billion. 

This company mainly invests in the sectors of thermal power, hydroelectric power and thermoelectricity, followed by investment in gas turbine power generation and clean power generation.

Investment Features of Guangdong Electric Power Development Co

  •  Main Business: power supply; diversification direction: insurance, finance and new energy exploitation.
  •  All projects are financed by non fund raising after 2001 with investment focus in South China. 
  •  The company is also engaged in financial industry. It increased its capital injection in Guangdong Yuedian Finance Co. Ltd. and initiated the establishment of Sunshine Insurance Group Corp. Ltd. 
  •  The company has also made great progress in wind power business. Shibeishan Wind Power Project (100 MW), in which it holds 30% stake, has already started power generation. The company also plans to exploit the wind power generation project in Zhanjiang, a city in Guangdong province.

Annual Investment of GEPDC, 2000-1H2008
 200807253.gif
Resource: ResearchInChina

Investment Distribution of GEPDC by Segments, 2000-2008
 200807254.gif
Resource: ResearchInChina


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