2007-2008年全球及中国混合动力车产业研究报告 >> 水清木华研究中心

国际油价飞涨让省油又环保的油电混合车出尽了风头。据称丰田Prius系列混合动力车国际市场上卖到断货。为了趁这波高峰继续巩固混合动力车市场老大的地位，丰田宣布与松下电器合作开发的新一代混合动力车用锂铁离子电池，并将于2009年正式量产。2008年6月，丰田汽车宣布在澳大利亚投产混合动力车，这也是丰田在美国和中国之后的海外第三处混合动力汽车生产基地。丰田将在2010年在其澳洲墨尔本工厂投产凯美瑞混动版，并计划最终实现年产1万辆的生产目标。

丰田公司2006年共销售31.25万辆混合动力车，比2005年增加了33％，2007年丰田混合动力车全球销量为42.9万辆。美国仍然是混合动力车最大的消费市场，2007年仅丰田就在美国市场上销售27.775万辆混合动力汽车；Prius仍然是混合动力车的NO.1，2007年Prius销量接近20万辆。丰田公司原计划在2010年后的几年内，混合动力车的年销量达到100万辆。从目前高涨的石油价格来看，这个目标的实现必然会提前。全球各大品牌汽车也相继推出了混合动力车的计划。

表：2008-2010年各个汽车公司的混合动力汽车推出计划

混合动力车品牌	公司	计划推出时间
Saturn Aura	GM	2008
Saturn Vue	GM	2008
Chevrolet Malibu	GM	2008
Fusion	Ford	2008
Mercury Milan	Mazda	2008
'2009 Next Generation Prius	Toyota	2008
A-BAT	Toyota	2008
Chevrolet Silverado 1500	GM	2009
Cadillac Escalade	GM	2009
Chevrolet Tahoe	GM	2009
GMC Yukon	GM	2009
Global	Honda	2009
Mercury Montego	Mazda	2009
Porsche	GM	2010
Chevrolet Volt - plug-in	GM	2010

整理：水清木华研究中心

面对全球销售增势强劲的混合动力车，中国的消费者似乎不太买账。以销量最大的普锐斯为例，据汽车工业协会统计数据显示，2008年1季度中国Prius产销量分别为168辆和80辆，2007年全年也仅300多辆。相比2007年Prius全球近20万辆的销量，混合动力车似乎在中国有点水土不服。我们认为价格是最关键的因素。目前Prius（普锐斯）在中国的销售价格在28万左右，而在美国的售价只有21500美金（折合人民币不到15万）。而且在美国购买Prius还可以享受总计高达2000美金以上的各种补贴。2008年5月石油价格上涨，美国混合动力车纷纷涨价。Prius、Camry、Lexus混合动力车5月在美国分别上涨400、100、300美金）。其次混合动力汽车的养护成本较高，据悉混合动力车的成本的30%以上是动力总成的成本，而混合动力技术装备的后续维护保养成本也是不低的。尽管有政府倡导以及丰田公司的宣传，但是要说服消费者去购买混合动力车仍然是一个问题。

虽然中国消费者没有显示出足够的热情，但中国国内汽车厂商仍然纷纷推出了混合动力车计划。尽管目前中国混合动力车市场仍然只是在培育期，但是如果国内油价放开、政府出台实质性的补贴措施、混合动力车销售价格下降或者低价的混合动力车推向市场时，国内厂商将会有所收获。

Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), fuel saving and environment friendly, have stolen the markets as international oil price soared up. It was reported that sales of Toyota Prius series HEVs is out of stock in international market. Grasping the opportunity, Toyota announced that it is developing a new generation of Lithium Iron Phosphate battery for HEVs with PANASONIC, which will be officially put into mass production in 2009, to strengthen its leading position in HEV market. In June 2008, Toyota disclosed that it will invest in Australia to make HEVs, which will be Toyota’s third HEV production base abroad after the U.S.A. and China. Toyota will invest in its Melbourne’s factory to produce CAMRY HEVs, and it plans to eventually achieve the target of an annual production of 10,000 Vehicles.

Toyota’s sales of HEVs were 312,500 units in 2006, increasing by 33% over 2005, and 429,000 units in 2007. The U.S. market is still the largest HEV market, where only Toyota sold 277,750 HEVs in 2007. Toyota’s Prius is still the No. 1 in HEV market with its sales reaching nearly 200,000 units in 2007. According to Toyota’s original plan, its sales target of HEVs would reach one million in several years after 2010, which will surely be achieved ahead of schedule, due to skyrocketing international oil prices. All major auto producers in the world have released their plans to produce HEVs successively.

HEV Plans of Global Key Auto Producers, 2008-2010

Brand	Manufacturer	Release time
Saturn Aura	GM	2008
Saturn Vue	GM	2008
Chevrolet Malibu	GM	2008
Fusion	Ford	2008
Mercury Milan	Mazda	2008
'2009 Next Generation Prius	Toyota	2008
A-BAT	Toyota	2008
Chevrolet Silverado 1500	GM	2009
Cadillac Escalade	GM	2009
Chevrolet Tahoe	GM	2009
GMC Yukon	GM	2009
Global	Honda	2009
Mercury Montego	Mazda	2009
Porsche	GM	2010
Chevrolet Volt - plug-in	GM	2010

Source：Research in China

HEVs are sold well in the world markets. However, it seems that Chinese consumers show no interest in them. Taking Toyota’s Prius with the largest sales as an example, its production and sales in China were only 168 units and 80 units separately in the first quarter of 2008, and about 300 units in 2007 according to the statistics of China Association of Automotive Manufacturers. Compared with Prius sales of nearly 200,000 vehicles in the world market, HEVs have seemingly not acclimatized themselves to China. Actually, we believe that price is the most important factor to restrict HEV sales in China. At present, Prius is sold in China at a price of about CNY280,000, but it is only US$215.000 (less than CNY150,000) in the U.S. Additionally, Prius buyers in the U.S. can enjoy various kinds of allowances valued at over US$2,000. In May 2008, HEV prices in the U.S. rose successively in tandem with jumps in oil prices and price of Prius, Camry and Lexus increased by US$400, US$100 and US$300 respectively in May. Furthermore, maintenance cost of HEVs is high. The cost of power train of HEVs is over 30% of the total and the follow-up maintenance cost is not low. Although the government advocates the use of HEVs and Toyota promotes the advantage of HEVs, it is also an issue to persuade people to purchase HEVs.

Although the Chinese consumers have showed little interest in purchasing HEVs, China auto manufacturers have also launched their own plans to produce HEVs successively. China HEV market is in the development stage, but if China allows oil prices to be decided by market, and adopts the policy to offer subsidy to HEV producers, which will push down selling prices of HEVs, then China HEV producers will have a harvest.

第一章混合动力车产业外部环境分析
1.1 环保因素促进
1.1.1北京市机动车尾气排放对大气污染物中CO、HC、NOx的分担率
1.1.2 上海市机动车尾气排放对大气污染物中CO、HC、NOx的分担率
1.2 “油荒”增压
1.2.1 国际原油紧张造成国内汽油价格骤升
1.2.2 国内汽车化进程过快导致能源更加紧张

第二章全球及国内混合动力车产业概况
2.1 全球市场混合动力车产业概况
2.1.1 日系汽车厂商混合动力车产业概况分析
2.1.2 美系汽车厂商混合动力车产业概况分析
2.1.3 欧洲汽车厂商混合动力车产业概况分析
2.1.4 2007年美国十大最畅销混合动力车
2.2 国内市场混合动力车产业概况

第三章混合动力车技术发展概况
3.1 混合动力车定义
3.2 国外混合动力车技术发展概况
3.3 国内混合动力车技术发展概况

第四章全球混合动力车生产企业概况
4.1 丰田
4.1.1 丰田Prius
4.1.2 丰田其它混合动力车型
4.2 本田
4.2.1 本田Insight
4.2.2 本田Civic
4.2.3 本田雅阁
4.3 福特
4.3.1 福特Escape
4.3.2 福特其他混合动力车型
4.4 通用
4.4.1 “Chevrolet Tahoe Two-mode Hybrid”2008年款
4.4.2 “Saturn Vue Green Line Hybrid”2007年款
4.5 戴-克
4.6 现代.
4.7 马自达
4.8 其他汽车厂商

第五章国内混合动力车生产企业概况
5.1 一汽集团
5.2 东风
5.3 上汽
5.4 长安集团
5.5 比亚迪
5.6 奇瑞
5.7 上海华普
5.8 北汽福田

第六章混合动力车与其它环保节能型汽车分析对比
6.1柴油车和混合动力车之争
6.1.1 柴油车的国际地位
6.1.2 柴油车在中国的发展前景
6.2氢燃料电池车
6.3 纯电动动力车
6.3.1 成本过高导致纯电动车产业化困难
6.3.2 纯电动车过于理想化而在技术上难以实现
6.4 其他动力汽车

第七章混合动力车产业发展前景与阻碍
7.1混合动力车产业发展前景分析
7.1.1 行业竞争的内在驱动
7.1.2 节能环保的外在驱动
7.1.3 技术进步的巨大促进
7.1.4 政策扶持的推动作用
7.2混合动力车产业发展阻碍分析
7.2.1 尽快应对技术阻碍和技术缺失
7.2.2 回避丰田对华先入为主的策略

第八章总结与建议
8.1 观点总结
8.2 国内发展混合动力车产业的相关建议
8.2.1 成本降低才有机会赢得市场
8.2.2 政策应支持混合动力车的使用

1. External Environment of HEV industry
1.1 Promotion by Environment Protection
1.1.1 Contribution Rates of CO, HC and NOx in Atmospheric Pollutants from Vehicle Emissions in Beijing
1.1.2 Contribution Rates of CO, HC and NOx in Atmospheric Pollutants from Vehicle Emissions in Shanghai
1.2 Increasing Pressure on Gasoline Shortage
1.2.1 China Gasoline Prices to Soar Driven by Global Crude Oil Shortage
1.2.2 Intensified Energy Shortage by A Fast Development of Auto Industry

2. Overview of Global and China HEV Industry
2.1 World HEV Industry
2.1.1 Japanese HEV Industry
2.1.2 U.S. HEV Industry
2.1.3 European HEV Industry
2.1.4 U.S. Top 10 Best-selling of HEVs in 2007
2.2 China HEV industry

3. HEV Technology Development
3.1 HEV Definition
3.2 World HEV Technology Development
3.3 China HEV Technology Development

4. Global HEV Manufacturers
4.1 Toyota
4.1.1 Prius
4.1.2 Other HEV Models
4.2 Honda
4.2.1 Insight
4.2.2 Civic
4.2.3 Accord
4.3 Ford
4.3.1 Escape
4.3.2 Other HEV Models
4.4 GM
4.4.1 2008 “Chevrolet Tahoe Two-mode Hybrid”
4.4.2 2007 “Saturn Vue Green Line Hybrid”
4.5 Daimler-Chrysler
4.6 Hyundai
4.7 Mazda
4.8 Other manufacturers

5. Chinese HEV Manufacturers
5.1 FAW-WW
5.2 Dongfeng Motor Corporation (DFM)
5.3 Saic Group
5.4 Changan Group
5.5 BYD
5.6 CHERY
5.7 Shanghai Maple
5.8 FOTON

6. Comparison of HEV and Other Environment-friendly & Energy-saving Vehicles
6.1 Diesel Vehicles and HEV
6.1.1 International Status of Diesel Vehicles
6.1.2 China Diesel Vehicle Development
6.2 Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Vehicle
6.3 Pure Electric Vehicle
6.3.1 High Cost
6.3.2 Technology Difficulty
6.4 Other Electric Vehicles

7. HEV Development Prospects and Obstacles
7.1 HEV Development Prospects
7.1.1 Competition Driven by Internal Factors
7.1.2 Energy-saving & Environment Protection Driven by External Factors
7.1.3 A Great Promotion Driven by Technical Progress
7.1.4 Promotion by Government Support
7.2 HEV Development Obstacles
7.2.1 Respond to Technical Obstacles & Deficiencies as Soon as Possible
7.2.2 To Deal with Toyota Market Strategies in China

8. Conclusions and Proposals
8.1 Conclusions
8.2 Proposals on China HEV Industry Development
8.2.1 To Gain Markets by Lowering Cost
8.2.2 Make Policies Supportive to HEVs

图表北京市机动车排放对大气污染中CO的分担率
图表北京市机动车排放对大气污染中HC的分担率
图表北京市机动车排放对大气污染中NOx的分担率
图表上海市机动车排放对大气污染中CO的分担率
图表上海市机动车排放对大气污染中HC的分担率
图表上海市机动车排放对大气污染中NOx的分担率
图表 2008.2-2008.5年国际原油价格走势图
图表 1998-2007年国内汽油价格走势图
图表 2005-2020年中国汽车消耗石油占全国总石油消耗比例趋势分析图
图表世界主要汽车厂商已上市的混合动力汽车
图表 2008-2010年各个汽车公司的混合动力汽车推出计划
图表 2000-2007年全球混合动力车产量图
图表 2007年混合动力车在全球整个汽车市场占有比例图
图表2002-2007年美国市场混合动力车销量
图表日本在美销售的主要款型混合动力车消费者定位表
图表日本在美销售的主要款型混合动力车规格参数表
图表 2007年美国三大混合动力车销售比例
图表：2005-2008年1季度中国PRIUS产销量情况
图表国内各大汽车厂商混合动力车生产计划
图表串联式混合动力系统
图表并联式混合动力系统
图表混联式混合动力系统（PRIUS普锐斯使用的THS）
图表国外混合动力汽车标准制定情况
图表混合动力汽车在各主要生产国申请专利的情况
图表国外主要厂商混合动力汽车专利申请量
图表丰田第一代Prius和第二代Prius参数对比
图表丰田Prius 规格参数表
图表丰田Prius
图表Estima混合动力车
图表 toyato Carmy HEV技术参数
图表Toyato Lexus HEV技术参数
图表Toyato Highlander HEV技术参数
图表 Insight混合动力车
图表本田Insight混合动力车参数表
图表 Civic混合动力版
图表 Honda CICIV HEV技术参数
图表雅阁混合动力版
图表本田雅阁混合动力版参数表
图表福特Escape 混合动力版
图表福特Fusion混合动力版
图表 Ford Mercury Mariner技术参数
图表通用Chevrolet Tahoe Two-mode Hybrid 2008年款
图表通用Saturn Vue Green Line Hybrid 2007年款
图表 “S级”奔驰配备的油电混合装置
图表 “S”级奔驰混合动力车
图表现代混合动力概念车“Portico”
图表 Mazda Tribute HEV技术参数
图表 Mazda Tribute HEV
图表 Nissian Altima 技术参数
图表国产普锐斯
图表一汽混合动力版奔腾
图表东风混合动力轿车EQ7200HEV技术指标
图表东风混合型动力轿车
图表混合动力版途安
图表混合动力领驭燃料混合动力轿车
图表君越混合动力轿车
图表长安杰勋混合动力
图表长安杰勋主要技术参数
图表以福莱尔为原形设计的混合动力车HYbrid-S
图表奇瑞混合动力车
图表奇瑞BSG混合动力车参数表
图表奇瑞ISG混合动力车参数表
图表上海华普海尚三厢
图表 1990年-2007年欧洲柴油车占有率增长图
图表 2000年-2006年美国柴油车销量增长图
图表日本柴油轿车销量情况
图表 2002-2006年一汽大众生产柴油轿车增长图
图表国外汽车厂商已开发出氢燃料电池车产品一览表
图表通用Hy-wire
图表本田FCX
图表美国混合电动汽车(HEVs)的税收优惠政策

Contribution Rate of CO in Atmospheric Pollutants from Vehicle Emission in Beijing
Contribution Rate of HC in Atmospheric Pollutants from Vehicle Emission in Beijing
Contribution Rate of NOx in Atmospheric Pollutants from Vehicle Emission in Beijing
Contribution Rate of CO in Atmospheric Pollutants from Vehicle Emission in Shanghai
Contribution Rate of HC in Atmospheric Pollutants from Vehicle Emission in Shanghai
Contribution Rate of NOx in Atmospheric Pollutants from Vehicle Emission in Shanghai
International Crude Oil Price Trend, Feb.-May 2008
China Gasoline Prices Trend, 1998-2007
Trend of Oil Consumption Ratio of China Auto to National Total, 2005-2020
HEVs Available in the Market by Global Key Auto Manufacturers
HEV Plans Released by Global Auto Companies, 2008-2010
World HEV Output, 2000-2007
HEV Proportion to the World Total Auto Market, 2007
Sales of HEVs in the United States, 2002-2007
Target Consumers of Main Japanese HEV Models in the U.S.
Specification Parameters of Main Japanese HEV Models in the U.S.
Sales Ratios of Three Major HEVs in the U.S. in 2007
Production and Sales of Prius in China, 2005-1Q2008
HEV Production Plans of China Auto Manufacturers
Series Hybrid System
Chart: Parallel hybrid system
Toyota Hybrid system（widely used in PRIUS）
International HEV Standards
Patent Applications by Main HEV Producers
Volume of Patent Applications by Main HEV Producers
Comparison of Parameters between Prius First Generation & Second Generation
Prius’ Specification Parameters
Toyota Prius
Estima HEVs
HEV Technology Parameters of Toyota Carmy
HEV Technology Parameters of Toyota Lexus
HEV Technology Parameters of Toyota Highlander
Insight HEVs
HEV Technology Parameters of Honda Insight
Civic HEVs
HEV Technology Parameters of Honda CICIV
Accord HEV s
HEV Technology Parameters of Honda Accord
Ford Escape HEVs
Ford Fusion HEVs
HEV Technology Parameters of Ford Mercury Mariner
GM’s 2008 Chevrolet Tahoe Two-mode Hybrid
GM’s 2007 Saturn Vue Green Line Hybrid
“S-Class” Mercedes-Benz Equipped with Hybrid Device
“S-Class” Mercedes-Benz HEVs
Hyundai Portico
HEV Technology Parameters of Mazda Tribute
Mazda Tribute HEV
HEV Technology Parameters of Nissian Altima
China Prius
FAW-WW Besturn B70HEV
Specifications of DFM EQ7200HEV
DFM HEV
Touran HEV
Passat HEV
Lacrosse HEV
Changan Jiexun HEV
HEV Technology Parameters of Changan Jiexun
HYbrid-S Based on the Design of Flyer
CHERY HEV
HEV Technology Parameters of CHERY BSG
HEV Technology Parameters of CHERY ISG
Hysoul of Shanghai Maple
Growth of European Diesel Vehicle Market Shares, 1990-2007
U.S. Diesel Vehicle Sales Growth, 2000 -2006
Japan Diesel Vehicle Sales
FAW-WW Diesel Vehicle Growth, 2002-2006
Hydrogen Fuel-cell Vehicles Developed by Overseas Auto Producers
GM Hy-wire
Honda FCX
Tax Breaks for U.S. HEVs