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2007年国家出台了棉花良种补贴、政策性保险、储备棉制度等政策，并决定在“十一五”期间投资7.5亿元加快新疆优质棉生产基地建设，一系列措施极大地提高了棉农种植积极性。根据国家统计局数据显示，2007年中国棉花种植面积为559万公顷，较2006年增长3.3%；棉花产量760万吨，较2006年增长12.6%。
图：2003-2007年全国棉花播种面积及总产量变化趋势
整理：水清木华研究中心
2007年中国累计进口棉花246.08万吨，较2006年减少32.5%。主要的原因是:
·国内棉花产量上升。
·纺织品服装出口增速放缓。2007年中国纺织品服装全年累计出口1711.72亿美元，较2006年增长16.5%，回落了8.5个百分点。
·进口棉花价格上升。受美国取消棉花出口补贴、国际市场棉花减产预期和全球农产品价格上涨等因素影响，2007年我国棉花进口均价为1414.7美元/吨，较2006年上涨5.6%。
图：2007年1-12月棉花进口量变化趋势（单位：万吨）
整理：水清木华研究中心
根据国家统计局显示，2007年中国规模以上企业累计纺纱1993.87万吨，较2006年增加253.87万吨，同比增长14.6%。如果纺棉比例按业界认为的最低55％计算，2007年规模以上企业棉花消费量为1096万吨，缺口在100万吨左右。
本报告依据国家统计局、中国棉花协会、国家海关总署、等国家权威渠道数据，对棉花的市场现状、主要政策、供需情况、重点公司进行了研究，并预测了2007/2008年度棉花及其种业的供需状况及发展趋势。
In 2007, China launched a series of policies, including subsidy to high quality cotton seed and policy insurance and according to the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” (2006-2010), China plans to pick up the construction of high-quality cotton production base in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region by investing CNY750 million, all of which have greatly enhanced the enthusiasm of farmers to plant cotton. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that China’s total cotton planting area reached 5.59 million hectares in 2007, up 3.3% year on year, and cotton output in the year reached 7.6 million tons, up 12.6% against the previous year.
Changes of China Cotton Planting Areas and Total Cotton Output, 2003-2007
Source: ResearchInChina
In 2007, China imported 2.46 million tons of cotton, down 32.5% against the previous year, which was caused mainly by the following three factors.
1) A rise in cotton output at home
2) A slowdown in the growth of China’s textile and apparel exports. In 2007, China’s textile and apparel exports reached US$171.17 billion, up 16.5% year on year, but 8.5 percentage points lower than a year ago.
3) An increase in prices of imported cotton. In 2007, the average price of imported cotton in China was US$1,415 per ton, up 5.6% year on year, due to the impact of several factors, including U.S. cancellation of subsidies to cotton export, anticipated reduction of cotton output in international market and price hikes in global agricultural products.
Changes of China Cotton Import Volume in Jan.-Dec.,2007
Source: ResearchInChina
Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in 2007, China’s total spinning output produced by companies above designated size (company with an annual sales revenue over CNY5 million) reached 19.94 million tons, up 14.6% year on year, or an addition of 2.54 million tons. Based on the calculation by cotton spinning ratio of 55%, the lowest one regarded by the industry, China’s cotton consumption in the year would likely be 10.96 million tons and the gap would likely be around one million tons.
Based on the authoritative and abundant information from the National Bureau of Statistics, the China Cotton Association and the General Administration of Customs of China, this report makes an in-depth study on the market status, main policies, supply & demand and key companies of cotton industry and forecasts the supply and demand as well as the development trend of cotton and its seed industry in the period of October, 2007 to September, 2008.
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